McQ Services Mid-Year Tanker Market Update
Sept. 6, 2024
McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the release of the 2024 Mid-Year Tanker Market Update. This 123-page report provides a detailed analysis of oil fundamentals, global economic and geopolitical context in addition to tanker demand and supply projections across eight vessel classes. The interaction of tanker demand and vessel supply variables is processed using advanced quantitative modeling to produce a five-year spot and time charter equivalent (TCE) forecast for eight vessel classes across 27 benchmark tanker trades, plus five triangulated trades.
Our 2024-2028 Tanker Market Outlook (TMO) forecasts published in January, which derived from quantitative models and qualitative adjustments, again closely matched with market development in the first eight months. Taking the VLCC benchmark TD3C as an example, our TCE forecasts (US $36,000/day) have only been US $2,300/day higher than the average earning for the first eight months. Looking back at the 19 forecasting cycles since 2006, our prompt year forecasts (Y1) for TD3C TCEs varied from actual levels by $9,600/day on the absolute basis average.
Figure 1: McQuilling Services’ Forecasting Performance (Y1) – VLCC TD3C TCEs
Source: McQuilling Services; non-ECO tankers without scrubbers
In this year’s Mid-Year Update, various market factors have been analyzed in detail, including a global crude restocking due to contango pricing structure as well as new trade flows resulted from infrastructure projects in the US Gulf (VLCC terminals), Guyana (FPSOs), Canada (TMX), West Africa (Dangote) and Mexico (Dos Bocas). We have also incorporated statistical forecasts on geo-political impacts such as drone attacks on Russian refineries, re-imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oils, increased Iranian crude exports to the East, and more recently the tanker rerouting amid the Red Sea chokepoint. A new scenario (Red Sea Reopens) has been introduced in this report enabling our readers to quantitatively adjust earnings outlook for each vessel segment if tankers again seamlessly transit through the Bab-al-Mandab Strait.
Purchasing
McQuilling Services’ 2024-2028 Tanker Market Outlook can be purchased online at www.mcquilling.com/reports-all.html, by email to services.us@mcquilling.com or by calling 516-227-5774.
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